幸福魔方

原标题：马斯克警告美联储：大幅加息，将面临通缩风险大家好，我是老李，关注我，了解更多。

B |     Birkenstock took a big step forward on Wall Street this week, taking the nearly 250-year-old German shoe and sandal maker public.The footwear, often seen as a counter culture shoe for hippies, and in more recent years influencers, has become must-have footwear for many people, but Birkenstock's Initial Public Offering, or IPO, which was originally priced at $46 per share, didn't attract the dress shoe-wearing stock brokers on Wednesday.Shares opened at $41, near the lower end of its expected range of $44 to $49 set a week prior, as Birkenstock CEO Oliver Reichert rang the opening bell in a room surrounded by traders sporting the opened-toed footwear and others waving the sandals in the air.Birkenstock Holding Ltd. sold nearly 10.8 million shares in the offering, which raised about $495 million on the day. Its shareholders sold an additional 21.5 million shares, according to the Associated Press."Through the strong reputation and universal appeal of our brand -- enabling extensive word-of-mouth exposure and outsized earned media value -- we have efficiently built a growing global fanbase of millions of consumers that uniquely transcends geography, gender, age and income," Birkenstock said in a recent regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, according to the AP.What started out in 1774 as a somewhat frumpy, but functional arch support sandal has transformed into a cult fashion item and billion dollar business, bolstered with support from the recent blockbuster hit "Barbie" when Margot Robbie's character is forced to choose between high heels or the strappy suede footwear.In tandem with the opening on Wall Street, Birkenstock hosted three consumer activations in public parks throughout Manhattan and Brooklyn.To highlight New York as "the city that never stops walking," the brand created what it dubbed "Birkenfields" for a public sensory experience that explored the brand's nearly 250-year heritage and expertise in foot health.The global brand is deeply rooted in foot health maintenance as well as a family tradition of shoemaking: Its inventor sought to provide function, quality and tradition as Birkenstock's core values.Over 95% of Birkenstock products are assembled in Germany with more than 90% of their materials and components sourced from Europe, ensuring the brand meets "the highest environmental and social standards in the industry by operating state-of-the-art scientific laboratories for materials testing," according to a company press release.。马斯克周五晚上在推特上表示，“美联储大幅加息有通缩的风险”。此话一出，底下评论就炸了，就像抖音的评论区一样，持有不同观点的喷子互喷。

C | 美联储主席鲍威尔最近在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的演讲中强调了美联储的鹰派立场。他指出，美联储与通胀的斗争将“带来一些痛苦”。

D | 许多人担心美联储加息，包括参议员伊丽莎白沃伦（D-MA），她表示她“非常担心”美联储的行动将使美国经济陷入衰退。马斯克的推文是在方舟投资首席执行官凯茜伍德（Cathie Wood）的分析之后发布的，她周三警告通货紧缩。“美联储正在根据滞后指标做出货币政策决策：就业和核心通胀，”她详细阐述道：

     黄金和铜等领先的通胀指标正在降低通缩风险。甚至油价也从峰值下跌了35%以上，抹去了今年的大部分涨幅。    

“作为最好的通胀指标之一，金价在两年多前的2020年8月达到2，075美元的峰值，并下跌了约15%。木材价格下跌超过60%，铜-30%，铁矿石-60%，DRAM-46%，原油-35%，“伍德解释说。“再往下游，零售商似乎正在库存中游来游去，他们可能被迫大幅打折，以清除假日商品的货架。令人惊讶的是，到年底，CPI和PCE平减指数可能会出现通缩，“这位高管补充说。“在管道中，通货膨胀正在变成通货紧缩。马斯克在八月份表示，通货膨胀已经达到顶峰，“将迅速下降”。他还预测，我们可能会经历持续约18个月的经济衰退。美国的通胀正在失控，当前美国需要想尽一切办法来避免通胀失控，美国想要控制通胀的唯一根本办法就是加息，而且是大幅加息，根本控制不住通胀。但问题在于跟上世纪80年代不同，当时美国债务水平很低，所以美联储哪怕一口气加息到20%，对于美国政府的债务压力也没有太大影响，但是当前美国的债务总额高达28.3万亿美金，一旦加息就会严重影响美国后续借新还旧的成本。当前美国股市泡沫化如此严重，一旦加息将同时戳破美国股市和债务的泡沫，必然导致美国金融市场全面崩盘，这是美国同样无法承受的灾难性结果。

E | 艰难的时期会带来真正的友谊，那些在熊市期间仍然在磨炼和学习的人是那些将长期留在这个行业的人，他们和你一起渡过难关，牛熊。一个人的加密道路总是那样坎坷。

F | 你需要加入一个由一群志同道合的人组成的队伍。

G | 掌握最新消息。公众号：蓝鲸community感谢观看，关注我，我们下期再见！返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：